Scenario Framework 2022
Consultation on expanded Scenario Framework for Gas NDP 2022-2032 gets underway
- Three new modelling variants (LNGplus security of supply variants) for replacing Russian gas volumes with LNG and hydrogen
- Updated natural gas demand forecasts for the LNGplus variants
- 30 September 2022: Deadline for capacity reservation and network expansion requests for LNG facilities (sections 38 and 39 of Gas Network Access Ordinance – GasNZV)
- 16 October 2022: Deadline for comments on the expanded Scenario Framework
“The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the parameters of the gas sector. Greater diversification of gas sources, for example through LNG, and a rapid switch from natural gas to hydrogen will be key to drastically reducing dependence on Russian natural gas or even completely replacing Russian gas volumes,” said Inga Posch, FNB Gas Managing Director on the occasion of the publication of the consultation document on the expanded Scenario Framework. “These changes have an impact on natural gas supply and demand and hence inevitably on network planning. We are taking these developments into account by adding three security of supply variants to the Scenario Framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032,” Posch continued.
As announced previously, the gas transmission system operators are today starting the consultation on the expanded Scenario Framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032 in accordance with section 15a of the German Energy Industry Act (EnWG). The new LNGplus security of supply variants proposed by the amendment envisage the complete replacement of Russian natural gas by LNG, additional volumes at cross-border interconnection points and hydrogen, and are based on adjusted demand forecasts.
Market participants can submit written comments on the scenario framework as of today. Market participants now have until 16 October 2022 to submit their comments on the Scenario Framework by e-mail to info@fnb-gas.de in a format suitable for electronic processing If any particular comment or parts of a statement made are not intended to be passed on to the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) or if statements are not meant to be published, the consultation participant must indicate this accordingly.
Capacity reservation requests in accordance with section 38 and expansion requests in accordance with section 39 of the Gas Network Access Ordinance (GasNZV) for LNG facilities must be submitted to the relevant gas TSOs by 30 September 2022 in order to be incorporated into the amended Scenario Framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032. Nur dann können sie im ergänzten Szenariorahmen zum NEP Gas 2022-2032 Berücksichtigung finden.
The NDP consultation document is expected to be published at the end of 2022.
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Gas transmission system operators announce consultation on an expanded Scenario Framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032
- Three new modelling variants (LNGplus) for replacing Russian natural gas with LNG and hydrogen
- Updated demand forecasts for natural gas for LNGplus
- Three-week consultation on an expanded Scenario Framework commences on 26 September 2022
- Deadline for capacity reservation and network expansion requests for LNG facilities expires on 30 September 2022
The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has fundamentally changed the parameters of the gas sector. Greater diversification of gas sources, for example through LNG, and a rapid switch from natural gas to hydrogen will be key to drastically reducing dependence on Russian natural gas or even completely replacing Russian gas volumes. These changes will have an impact on gas supply and demand and hence inevitably on network planning.
The gas transmission system operators (TSOs) therefore consider it necessary to add three modelling variants (LNGplus) to the Scenario Framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032, which was already confirmed in January 2022, and to facilitate the complete replacement of Russian natural gas volumes with LNG and hydrogen as well as adjust the demand forecasts for this purpose.
In order to achieve the network expansions required for security of supply as quickly as possible despite the current challenging situation, the additions to the scenario framework and modelling variants were discussed with the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) ahead of the consultation. The next step will now be for the gas TSOs to submit their expanded Scenario Framework for consultation in accordance with section 15a of the German Energy industry Act (EnWG).
This consultation will start on 26 September and end on 16 October. This deadline reflects the fact that time is of the essence for these new variants. The process was also coordinated with the Federal Network Agency.
The gas TSOs wish to point out that capacity reservation requests in accordance with section 38 and expansion requests in accordance with section 39 of the Gas Network Access Ordinance (GasNZV) for LNG facilities must be submitted to the relevant gas TSOs by 30 September 2022 in order to be incorporated into the expanded Scenario Framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032.
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BNetzA confirms the scenario framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032
After confirmation of the scenario framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032 by the Federal Network Agency, the transmission system operators will start preparing the NEP Gas 2022-2032 in the next step.
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FNB publishes hydrogen maps: hydrogen will be produced and consumed here in the future.
The increasing importance of hydrogen in decarbonization was highlighted in the recent Hydrogen Demand and Generation” (WEB) market survey by the TSOs. The results have already been published in the draft document of the 2022-2032 scenario framework. Now FNB Gas presents mapped representations of reported hydrogen injection and withdrawal. This shows how important it is to develop a transport infrastructure for hydrogen.
Inga Posch, Managing Director of FNB Gas, commented:
“The TSOs’ WEB market survey of hydrogen projects to identify a potential hydrogen network has revealed a significant increase in the production and demand of hydrogen in Germany up to 2032 and beyond.
The high demand reports show that the market partners see hydrogen as the future of energy supply and are already planning for it now. Hydrogen offers huge potential to quickly realize CO2 reductions and transform the energy system in an economically efficient way. Our network lays the basis and foundation for this. In order for network operators to get started, we need the right framework conditions. Our investment decisions, but above all those of market participants, depend on this.
The hydrogen projects with connections to the long-distance pipeline network are distributed throughout Germany. This means that we need a supraregional, pipeline-based transport infrastructure for hydrogen in the near future in order to connect hydrogen sources with the corresponding hydrogen sinks. Economically, it is most advantageous to develop these predominantly by converting existing pipelines to hydrogen from the natural gas grid.
In addition, many distribution system operators have expressed a need. This clearly shows that we need to develop entire regions with a high-performance hydrogen infrastructure as early as possible as well as over a large area in order to ensure that the large number of customers are supplied via the distribution networks.”
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The German transmission system operators (TSOs) had given the public the opportunity to submit their comments on the scenario framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032 from June 21 to July 16, 2021. A total of 27 comments were received during the public consultation process. The TSOs have submitted all comments pursuant to Section 15 a EnWG to the Federal Network Agency for evaluation of the submitted scenario framework and will address the submitted contributions in their revision of the scenario framework.
Unless the commentators have objected to publication, their contributions are attached as a downloadable file.
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On the occasion of the consultation of the 2022 scenario framework, the transmission system operators held a workshop on 01 July 2021, in which representatives of all value creation levels participated. In addition to expert presentations by the transmission system operators, the Federal Network Agency presented its initial assessment of the consultation document.
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Scenario framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032: Market partners report strong increase in demand for hydrogen and green gases
- 500 hydrogen projects reported
- Early achievement of climate targets requires hydrogen infrastructure
- TSOs launch consultation of the Scenario Framework
- Consultation workshop 1 July 2021 (digital event)
The Scenario Framework for the Gas Network Development Plan (NDP) 2022-2032 published today by the German transmission system operators (TSOs) stresses the importance of integrating hydrogen, biomethane and synthetic methane into the gas infrastructure.
The Scenario Framework is the first step in drawing up the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032. The document presents the development of gas and hydrogen demand up to the year 2032 and also provides an outlook up to the year 2050, based on an adjusted TM95[1] scenario from the dena lead study on the integrated energy transition. In this scenario, gaseous energy sources make a significant contribution to decarbonisation. The modelling variants are based on a demand-oriented development of gas consumption and transmission as required for stable and reliable energy supplies.
For the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032, the transmission system operators conducted their Hydrogen Generation and Demand (Wasserstoff Erzeugung und Bedarf – WEB) market survey for the second time. The market partners reported 500 hydrogen projects, many times more than two years ago. FNB Gas Chairman Dr Thomas Gößmann: “The enormous number of projects clearly shows that we have to provide a hydrogen infrastructure at an early stage. This is the only way we can make the energy system fit for the future and achieve Germany’s ambitious climate protection goals.”
In their last Gas Network Development Plan 2020-2030, the transmission system operators’ plans already showed that Germany needs a hydrogen infrastructure which can be built from the existing natural gas network. In addition to the hydrogen requirements of 191 TWh for the period up to 2032, requirements totalling 342 TWh for 2040 and 476 TWh for 2050 were also reported in the current WEB market survey.
Inga Posch, FNB Gas Managing Director: “Hydrogen and green gases play a central role in the energy transition. Without them, the decarbonisation of the industry, transport and buildings sectors is simply inconceivable.”
The transmission system operators point out that the development of gas demand will be stable until 2032, the target year of the planning period. Therefore, the infrastructure will continue to be of great importance. In order to be able to guarantee a reliable supply of gas to their customers, the TSOs also take additional demand and connection requests into account for their assumptions.
The consultation on the scenario framework of the Gas NDP 2022-2032 runs from 21.06. to 16 July 2021. The accompanying workshop, to which all market participants are invited, will take place as a digital event on 1 July 2021. An English translation of the Gas NDP 2022-2032 Scenario Framework will be published and simultaneous English translation will be provided for the workshop.
The TSOs point out that until the end of the consultation period further information from foreign network operators and storage operators regarding hydrogen source distribution as well as applications according to §§ 38/ 39 GasNZV can be submitted.
After the consultation period, the comments received will be analysed and incorporated into the 2022 Scenario Framework. Please submit your comments to info@fnb-gas.de
Further information: www.fnb-gas.de and in the NEP gas database.
[1]
Technology mix scenario, 95% reduction in emissions by 2050 adjusted by FNB to reflect current developments.
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Invitation to the accompanying workshop on the occasion of the consultation of the scenario framework for the gas network development plan 2022-2032
This workshop is intended to continue the dialogue with the public. The workshop is aimed at both German and English-speaking participants, for whom we will provide simultaneous translation.
The web-based workshop will be held on July 01, 2021 from 9:00 am to approximately 1:00 pm.
Ihre Teilnahme bestätigen Sie bitte verbindlich bis zum 28. Juni per E-Mail an info@fnb-gas.de. You are welcome to forward the invitation. We look forward to your participation and a constructive exchange.
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Publication of the consultation document of the 2022 Scenario Framework scheduled for June 21, 2021.
The transmission system operators intend to publish the consultation document of the 2022 scenario framework on June 21, 2021. Consultation on the scenario framework is scheduled from June 21, 2021 to July 16, 2021. A consultation workshop is expected to be held on 01 July 2021. Further information will be published by FNB Gas in due time.
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For the Hydrogen Query Generation and Demand (WEB) and Green Gases started on 11/01/2021, the transmission system operators provide the form with supplemented instructions. The transmission system operators have included some additional guidance for distribution system operators to simplify data entry in the “Guidance” spreadsheet of the reporting form. The form itself is unchanged.
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FNB launch second market survey for producers and consumers of hydrogen and green gases for the scenario framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032
The transmission system operators (TSOs) have taken hydrogen and green gases (synthetic methane) into account for the first time in the Gas Network Development Plan 2020-2030 (Gas NDP 2020). This is to be continued in the Gas NDP 2022-2032. Therefore, the TSOs are also launching a market survey this year for the scenario framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032, with the aim of obtaining an overview of current hydrogen and green gas projects in Germany and the adjacent projects in neighboring countries that have an impact on Germany.
For this purpose, the German TSOs ask all companies, project responsible distribution system operators as well as adjacent projects in neighboring countries that have an impact on Germany to report projects for the generation and demand of hydrogen and green gases for the consultation document of the scenario framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032 by 16.04.2021.
The TSOs provide a form for the market inquiry. The notification must be sent to an TSO active at the project site. In addition, transmission system operators publish the following criteria and guidance for consideration of green gas projects.
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TSOs point out deadline for capacity reservation pursuant to section 38 GasNZV and capacity expansion entitlement pursuant to section 39 GasNZV and publish criteria for consideration in 2022 scenario framework
The German transmission system operators (TSOs) point out that capacity reservations according to section 38 and capacity expansion claims according to section 39 GasNZV for storage, LNG and production facilities as well as gas-fired power plants have to be submitted to the responsible TSOs by 31 March 2021 in order to be taken into account in the consultation document of the scenario framework for the Gas NDP 2022-2032.
In addition, the TSOs publish the criteria for taking into account capacity reservations and capacity expansion claims pursuant to sections 38/ 39 GasNZV.
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Transmission system operators begin preparations for the scenario framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032 with the aim of planning future gas infrastructures for hydrogen and methane in line with demand
In January 2021, the gas transmission system operators (TSOs) will launch a market survey that will allow them to develop their infrastructure for hydrogen and methane in line with demand.
